The Most Accurate Predictions for the Investment Market in 2026

  • 7 minute read
  • 8 January 2026
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The Most Accurate Predictions for the Investment Market in 2026

Qu Yan (Leo) recently wrote a detailed market outlook for 2026, focusing on trends across Canadian banking, U.S. equity valuations, MICs, crypto, and gold.

Given the current level of market uncertainty, many investors are reconsidering allocation strategies — this article breaks down key risks and opportunities in a clear, data-driven way.

As we look back at 2025, one thing is clear : Investors who placed their money in stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs generally enjoyed strong returns. Now that we’ve entered December, the full-year outlook still appears positive.

Meanwhile, recent earnings reports from Scotiabank and RBC reveal a significant boost driven by robust capital markets and wealth management activities. As Canada’s largest bank, RBC’s profit surged 29% to $5.4B CAD, while Scotiabank delivered $2.2B CAD in net profit.

These numbers highlight a key truth: Canada’s major banks—with their strong compliance frameworks and comprehensive wealth-management teams—continue to attract high-quality clients who need integrated financial services. For high-net-worth individuals in Canada, managing liquid assets through the banking system remains an excellent option, and current earnings reinforce this view.

Most retail wealth-management activities in Canada still take place within banks.

Why So Many Young Professionals Choose Banking ?

It’s no surprise that young people pursuing finance gravitate toward banks:

  • Clear career progression
  • Strong compliance and well-established platforms
  • Sticky, stable client relationships
  • Easier client acquisition
  • A broad environment to learn the fundamentals of the financial industry

Banks have the widest ecosystem among all financial institutions. That’s why I often encourage young professionals to grow their careers there. Working with diverse clients strengthens practical skills and deepens understanding of the core mechanics of Canadian finance.

Finance is an upstream industry—if you work within it, you gain wider access to information and resources. And as long as you stay committed, you can grow quickly. Banks also allow you to internalize Canada’s strict compliance standards, which is invaluable.

To be honest, I admire young people who have the chance to start in banks. For mid-career immigrants like me, however, entering a bank as a teller and restarting from the bottom isn’t an ideal fit. Bank roles also require several investment-related licenses in Canada, which can be a heavy burden at this stage of life.

Young people have time to study for exams like the CSC, CFP, CFA, FRM, accumulate experience, and rise over time. But by the time someone like me completes the same path, I’d likely be past 50. I want to achieve financial freedom earlier, not follow a long, linear career ramp again.

That’s why I didn’t pursue banking—not because I couldn’t, but because I couldn’t find a role that matched my experience. Banks often expect more from employees than corporate roles. In contrast, at my current lending institution, my skills and experience translate into value much faster, allowing me to contribute meaningfully and grow the company’s productivity.

For someone like me, leveraging accumulated expertise to create immediate value is the most efficient path.

Banking vs. Exempt Market Investing

Banks operate in the trillions-sized secondary market, offering a wide range of investment products. The exempt market, where I currently work, is different—its offerings are more niche, designed for high-net-worth investors to diversify risk.

But our products remain popular because they maintain low correlation with traditional bank wealth products. When massive market volatility or “Black Swan” events hit, MICs can help limit downside risk, making them a strong option for conservative investors.

My View on U.S. Equity Valuations

This week, I reviewed major U.S. companies’ valuations—PEG ratios, EV metrics, and more. Although giants like Apple, Nvidia, Google, and Meta are globally competitive, the valuations of the top three now show PEG ratios above 2, which generally suggests “overpriced.”

PEG compares valuation to earnings growth—the higher the PEG, the more expensive the stock.

Value investing requires buying strong, competitive companies at reasonable prices. Buying when valuations are high exposes investors to significant downside risks.

Morningstar’s data currently shows the overall U.S. market is highly valued.
This connects to several factors:

  • A strong USD
  • Positive U.S. macroeconomic data
  • Trump’s aggressive tariff policies
  • Global capital flowing toward U.S. high-yield assets

Hot money is pushing equity prices higher across liquid secondary markets.
Therefore, the risk level is elevated.

This is why I urge investors reading this to remain cautious with U.S. equities. Personally, U.S. stocks make up only 20% of my portfolio—I believe future volatility may be severe even if we can’t see it yet.

Many investors who have already made substantial gains are reallocating into undervalued, high-potential assets. They see the same thing: high U.S. valuations.

Lessons From Canada’s Housing Market

It’s similar to what happened in Canada’s residential real-estate market. When prices peaked in 2022, many agents encouraged buyers by saying, “Prices will keep rising!”

People unfamiliar with macroeconomics or the housing cycle rushed in… By 2025, their assets dropped more than 20% in value.

I’m one of the people who didn’t buy at the peak. I continued renting, and I still haven’t purchased a home today. I believe Canada’s housing market may continue to decline because of broader economic concerns.

For first-time buyers, this is painful—and even more so for property investors.
That’s why, I prefer loan-based fixed-income products:

  • They provide stable returns
  • They avoid asset-price depreciation risks

Crypto & Gold: My Short-Term Outlook

Crypto

After a sharp 30% correction, crypto is currently building a base. This sector remains a core part of future financial innovation, with strategic significance for many countries. With growing global participation and improved liquidity from exchanges like Binance, the long-term direction remains bullish.

Gold

Gold has inherent physical value and acts as a hard currency. Although it doesn’t generate recurring yield like an MIC does, its price is supported by global geopolitical instability and aggressive accumulation by nations—especially China, which is preparing for long-term strategic goals like resolving the Taiwan issue.

From late 2023 until now, gold has doubled, an unprecedented surge.
I suggest holding and observing.

Bitcoin? Buy dips and continue holding long-term.

MICs? I maintain my view: They remain a strong allocation choice for boosting overall return while diversifying risk.

Final Thoughts

2026 will be a year of both opportunity and uncertainty. Different asset classes will behave differently, and smart allocation—not speculation—will determine long-term success.

Author: Qu Yan (Leo) I OSC® Investment Representative in Exempt capital market | Alternative lender® FSRA and ® EMD, MBA (Finance). Website: http://dxfinance.ca/

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This article is an original work based on my personal experience and professional insights. All rights are reserved. Reproduction, distribution, or citation of any part of this content without permission is strictly prohibited. Qu Yan (Leo)

Talking Investments with Honesty. Real Insights, No Sugarcoating.

For Mandarin-speaking readers, you can also find my WeChat QR code in the image below (for networking and industry insights only).

I just released a new in-depth analysis on where I believe the Canadian and U.S. markets are heading in 2026 — covering equities, the exempt market, crypto, gold, and the outlook on Canada’s housing cycle.

If you’re interested in:

  • Investment Market direction in 2026
  • Risk levels in U.S. equities
  • How high-net-worth investors are reallocating
  • Why MICs remain resilient amid macro uncertainty
  • What young professionals should know about banking vs. exempt-market investing

Then this article will give you a structured, easy-to-read breakdown of everything.

Contact Qu Yan (Leo) I OSC® Investment Representative in Exempt capital market | Alternative lender® FSRA and ® EMD, MBA (Finance). → https://www.linkedin.com/in/yan-qu-6360771a4

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